The Lincolnshire Bird Club

I have just seen Graham's photo- on his blog - of a juv Islandic Black T Godwit taken a few days ago ( no obvious date) that is well advanced in its post juv moult into first winter plumage. I have been monitoring every Black T Godwit flock I can find for juvs ever since the first adults returned from Iceland at the end of june. I did not find a single juv until the middle of august and since then I have not found more than 3% juvs in total and generally it's as low as 1% - and that's in flocks of upto 160 individuals. I have seen odd ones just starting post juvenile moult with a few grey scapulars but the majority have shown no sign of moult. Even today at Gib the only juv showed no sign of moult.
I have no records from previous years of juv numbers but 1-3% seems to show a breeding failure.
Does anybody have any comments??

Observers and ringers in Iceland reported a very poor season with poor spring weather and very low fledging rates even amogst chicks that hatched. The number of juvs around the Humber has been poor with a max of only 26 birds at N Killingholme in a flock of 4600 birds. The % has been higher at Alkborough where juvs tend to concentrate on arrival. Of 74 birds 27 were juvs.