The Lincolnshire Bird Club

it would be good to get a measured idea of just how badly the spring migrants have done in reaching Lincs this year and to gauge whether the appalling situation in some areas is the same throughout the county;

In the areas that I monitor some species seem to be in truly dire straits eg
Grasshopper Warbler 2 singing males Barton pits this year where there were 23 in 2011 -- none at Alkborough in 2012 where 3-4 in 2011
Willow Warblers seem to be down about 20% at Laughton but faring better than some species
Reed and Sedge Warblers at Barton - Barrow Haven 30% - 40% down on 2011 but some Reeds could still arrive
Cuckoo the decline continues just 1 male at Barton - Barrow Haven
Tree Pipit down 30% on all my study sites
Yellow Wagtail not seen one in Barton this year -- seem to be a few on the Wolds but not many
Lesser Whitethroat down by 60% - 70% around the clay pits
Sand Martin highest day count on the pits <30 birds compared to 300+ in most years
Hobby worryingly scarce so far
Garganey 2 at Alkborough none around the clay pits
Marsh Harrier a few individuals with long histories failed to return this year
Little Ringed Plover first one here yesterday and only one pair Alkborough compared to peak years of 6 pairs but partly down to habitat change

and on the positive side Whitethroats maybe about normal numbers but would guess 10% - 20% down
Blackcaps continue their good form
Chiffchaffs as Blackcap
Swifts about 600 here yesterday

i agree graham the worrying decline continues, not heard a gropper, turtle doves none around, yellow wags way down at grainthorpe area. its the same at titchwell, speaking to the warden last wk reed and sedge present but in much smaller numbers.
the day after we spoke at the pallid site a hobby went through, my first of the year, also 2 cuckoos doing a great display flight for about 20 mins but both species in short supply,

terry whalin

I have added some comments in the Bird Reports section, in the thread "Nocton Fen and Woodhall" started by John Watt.

Robert

The numbers of most migrants here at Donna Nook are well down on previous years and percentage changes I have given below are those compared to last year. Some of these birds are probably not British bound which might indicate more contrasting status changes to birds in other parts of the county. There is certainly a degree of patchiness in the populations of some species which may point to some migrants being yet to arrive.
The main features are as follows:-
Species down in numbers
Grasshopper Warbler- Down by about 50% and none after 6th May.
Reed Warbler- Down by 50%, but as you say Graham, more could yet arrive.
Sedge Warbler- Down by 80%. None at all recorded on some days and this follows an exceptionally good year in 2011.
Lesser Whitethroat- Down by about 30%, although one good passage day with 10 on 12th May.
Whitethroat- Down by 60%. Record year in 2011.
Cuckoo- Down by 25%, but both main host species, Dunnock and Meadow Pipit are also in decline as breeding birds.
Yellow Wagtail- Down by 50%, but much of the available breeding habitat is oilseed rape this year.
Sand Martin- Very scarce this spring with never more than 4 in a day so far.
Marsh Harrier- Only 4 birds in April and none in May so far.
Common Sandpiper- Only one in May
Green Sandpiper- As Common Sandpiper.
Sanderling- No sizeable flocks yet.
Species about the same as last year.
Garden Warbler- Still only a shadow of its former status.
Willow Warbler-No appreciable changes.
Tree Pipit- Only odd ones, as seems the norm nowadays.
Turtle Dove- Rare, but the same as last year.
House Martin- Only small numbers, but no change.
Wheatear- Numbers comparable to last spring, but peaking rather later.
Species up on last year.
Encouraging increases of Blackcap and Chiffchaff and also slight increases in Swallow and Whimbrel.
Species in insignificant numbers to date.
Redstart, Whinchat and Spotted Flycatcher.
Species not recorded at all.
Hobby, Garganey, Gadwall, Little Ringed Plover, Dotterel and Wood Sandpiper.

SL.

Hobby at Ancaster. Be patient - wait for the wind to change. We have got so used to very early migrant arrivals over recent years that we forget what normal means, never mind late!

I think a lot of birds were being held up by the weather, when I was in Lincs recently and also here in the Midlands it was more like November than May. On the Portland Bird Observatory website it says that on the 19th May Sand Martins were still coming in off the sea.
You may find this will be the norm in the future as we go into a Maunder minimum.
Geoff

Much the same at Saltfleeetby NNR (as Donna Nook) although Willow Warblers are down by 20to25% and they were down slightly last year,
Only completed 5 census visits thus far (5th visit today 22 05) and some in less than ideal weather, so data isn,t complete yet with at least 4 more visits to complete. ( this will be the 34th succesive year of the CBC on a 36 acre sample area of the nnr)
hoping for some improvement over forthcoming weeks .
regards John.

My first BBS visits in last week of April seemed to be well down on last year but its a bit early to say until the late visits are done in the first week of June.

When that data is in we should have a much better immediate impression of what the out turn is. Never heard of the Maunder minimum Geoff mentions so I'm off to Google it. Geoff, what can you tell us about its impact on bird movements?

I've had a look and the maunder minimum refers to a period from 1645 to 1715 when sunspot activity was at its lowest. This period coincides with the little ice age when UK was pretty cold.

Its postulated that the two were correlated and sunspot activity may be currently declining, but looking at the graph on Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum , it has quite a long way to go down yet before we see any effect. Those of us who live long enough may get a better idea if there is any causation, but the interaction with anthropegenic global warming (AGW) will make matters even more complex.

Don't suppose there is any evidence of its impact on migration patterns in the 17th and 18th centuries as they weren't big on migration studies back then but its a reasonable bet it had an effect. This spring is surely more likely to be down to the increased variability in weather patterns caused by AGW.

In reply to Graham's request for "a measured idea of just how badly the spring migrants have done in reaching Lincs this year", I have a suggestion:

An online survey to be done in the last week of May each year. Participants would select one of five values (1=large decrease, 2=decrease, 3=no change, 4=increase, 5=large increase) they would apply this value to all the species they are familiar with in their home area over the past year. This could include residents such as Green Woodpecker and Grey Partridge, which have been the subject of discussion on this forum lately, as well as spring migrants.

The survey could be open for anyone to participate, either for simply noting an increase in the number of Swallows locally this year, or for publishing the results of a detailed census.

The results of the Breeding Bird Survey take a year to be published but a simple online survey could produce immediate results (like the RSPB's January Garden Birdwatch?) with much more impact and publicity value.

Hugh Dorrington

Interestingly I have noticed, on the small number of sites I visit, that there appear to be more whitethroat and Chiffchaff this year plus we have had 3 Turtle Dove together in Fulbeck. However, Willow Warbler, Blackcap, and particularly Sedge Warbler appear to be significantly down. The number of passage waders has been very much down although the sites I visit have had much more water in than usual with much less exposed muddy margins.

David